The global critical minerals landscape is fracturing along geopolitical lines. China's ongoing export controls on gallium and germanium compounds — both essential to semiconductor manufacturing — have already accelerated Western reshoring timelines. But the fragmentation extends well beyond any single policy action.
The ODI's 2026 geopolitical risk assessment identifies a deepening competition over critical raw materials that is simultaneously reshaping industrial policy, trade relationships, and national security calculations across dozens of countries. The era of globalized, efficiency-optimized mineral supply chains is giving way to a new paradigm of strategic stockpiling, bilateral agreements, and regionally concentrated processing capacity.
The Infrastructure Connection
For data center operators and infrastructure investors, these shifts are not abstract geopolitical concerns — they have direct operational consequences. Lithium-ion batteries for UPS systems depend on lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply chains. Cooling system components require copper and aluminum. Server manufacturing depends on rare earth elements for magnets and gallium for semiconductors. Every link in the data center supply chain touches the critical minerals market.
The U.S. National Science Foundation's Tech Metal Transformation Challenge, which awarded funding to eight winning teams in March 2026, represents one approach to reducing import dependency — developing domestic capability to extract and recycle critical metals from complex waste streams. But these technologies are years from commercial scale.
Investment Response
The U.S. government has mobilized over $30 billion in support for critical mineral projects in the past six months, spanning letters of interest, direct investments, loans, and loan guarantees. Eleven new bilateral frameworks have been signed. But the pace of demand growth — driven by both the energy transition and the AI infrastructure buildout — continues to outstrip the pace of supply chain diversification.